Prices reflect projected points: Tony prospects, box office outlook, weeks left to run, and known scores. The line under each show is the reasoning.
★ Already open = reviews are public, so the show earns box office and awards points only.
OB = Off-Broadway (no box office, no Tony eligibility)
Shows that open after you draft earn critic and audience points for you. Scores shown here may still change.
Premium Broadway
$20+(11)Tony frontrunners and the biggest box office
Tier 4: Dolly Parton's autobiographical musical, directed by Bartlett Sher; the Nashville tryout scored 83 and Parton will sell the St. James. Awards upside is capped by the bio-jukebox format. · projected about $1.2M a week · 26 scoring weeks of grosses (run length estimated)
Tier 5: Rachel Zegler's Olivier-winning turn in Jamie Lloyd's Palladium production (scored 82 in London) transfers to the Winter Garden; the consensus Best Revival of a Musical frontrunner. · projected about $1.7M a week · 15 scoring weeks of grosses
Tier 5: Seven Olivier wins including Best New Musical; the Savoy production scored 89 in London and Gold Derby calls it the de facto Best Musical frontrunner. Open run at the Hirschfeld. · projected about $1.2M a week · 10 scoring weeks of grosses
Tier 4: Neil Patrick Harris and Julianne Hough in Sergio Trujillo's rewritten revival, which swept the Helen Hayes Awards at Arena Stage. Open run at the Marquis. · projected about $1.5M a week · 11 scoring weeks of grosses (run length estimated)
Tier 4: Lincoln Center Theater revival directed by Lear deBessonet with Jasmine Amy Rogers as Maria; LCT's Rodgers & Hammerstein revivals have won Best Revival before. Runs through July. · projected about $1.2M a week · 11 scoring weeks of grosses (run length estimated)
Tier 5: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Ed Harris, Allison Janney, Joe Keery and Lily Rabe in Jon Robin Baitz's Pulitzer finalist; the starriest play of the fall and a Best Revival favorite. 16 weeks, closes Jan 17. · projected about $1.1M a week · 14 scoring weeks of grosses
Tier 3: New musical (formerly Gun & Powder, whose Signature and Paper Mill runs scored 83 and 86) with Solea Pfeiffer and Ledisi; Gold Derby calls it the homegrown show that could challenge Paddington. Open run. · projected about $830K a week · 22 scoring weeks of grosses (run length estimated)
Tier 3: Raúl Esparza's first Broadway musical since 2012, directed by Michael Mayer at the Shubert; the Berkeley Rep tryout scored 60. Open run. · projected about $830K a week · 22 scoring weeks of grosses (run length estimated)
Tier 5: Julia Roberts, Paul Rudd, Sarah Paulson, Martin Freeman and Greta Lee in Bess Wohl's silent-retreat comedy, directed by Joe Mantello: the season's biggest star package. · projected about $683K a week · 16 scoring weeks of grosses (run length estimated)
Tier 3: Prince's film on stage at the Majestic after a mixed Minneapolis tryout; a new director (Saheem Ali) and book writer came aboard for Broadway. The catalog guarantees grosses. · projected about $1.2M a week · 13 scoring weeks of grosses (run length estimated)
Tier 4: Tom Hiddleston and Hayley Atwell in Jamie Lloyd's Olivier-nominated Drury Lane production, already close to sold out at the Winter Garden. Strictly 10 weeks, closes Jan 10. · projected about $1.3M a week · 10 scoring weeks of grosses
Mid-Range Broadway
$12–19(8)Credible contenders, star vehicles and limited runs
Tier 4: Rosamund Pike's Olivier-winning Broadway debut in Suzie Miller's follow-up to Prima Facie; the National Theatre run scored 83 with raves for the performance and doubts about the script. Closes Feb 21. · projected about $546K a week · 14 scoring weeks of grosses
Tier 3: Bradley Whitford and Tom Blyth in the first Broadway revival of Aaron Sorkin's courtroom drama, directed by Michael Arden at Lincoln Center's Beaumont. 13 weeks, closes Jan 10. · projected about $1.0M a week · 13 scoring weeks of grosses
Tier 4: Bruce Norris's NY Drama Critics' Circle Best Play winner, directed by Joe Mantello with K. Todd Freeman and Francis Guinan; the best-reviewed play text of the fall. 12 weeks, closes Jan 10. · projected about $546K a week · 12 scoring weeks of grosses
Tier 2: First Broadway production of the world's longest-running musical, reimagined by Christopher Gattelli at the 597-seat Hayes with Ruthie Ann Miles; a thin revival field is its main path. Closes Feb 7. · projected about $681K a week · 15 scoring weeks of grosses
Tier 3: Branden Jacobs-Jenkins's Pulitzer-finalist office thriller at the Hayes, directed by Evan Cabnet; no cast announced yet. · projected about $681K a week · 12 scoring weeks of grosses (run length estimated)
Tier 2: Roundabout's revival of the Yazbek and McNally musical opens on the eligibility cutoff day with no cast announced; limited run through June 20. · projected about $844K a week · 10 scoring weeks of grosses
Tier 3: World premiere from Dominique Morisseau with Kara Young and Ruben Santiago-Hudson, directed by Kamilah Forbes at Roundabout; eight weeks, closes Feb 28. · projected about $455K a week · 7 scoring weeks of grosses
Tier 3: Tectonic Theater Project's Pulitzer-finalist docudrama, a Lortel winner Off-Broadway; its London run scored 72. Ten-week run at the Barrymore through Jan 10. · projected about $455K a week · 9 scoring weeks of grosses
Value Broadway
Under $12(8)Long shots, special events and shows that already opened. A surprise nomination pays off big.
Tier 2: Danny Burstein, Jessica Hecht and Micaela Diamond in MTC's Odets revival; a strong cast, but an eight-week engagement ending Feb 7 in a crowded revival year. · projected about $740K a week · 8 scoring weeks of grosses
Tier 3: Billy Crystal's solo show at the Imperial, directed by Scott Ellis: a near-certain sellout, but solo shows are not Best Play contenders. 14 weeks, closes Jan 2. · projected about $683K a week · 12 scoring weeks of grosses
Tier 2: Opened Aug 25 to Recommended-range reviews (78) and sells out the August Wilson; its awards path is the design categories (sound, lighting, scenic), not Best Play. Closes Jan 3. · CriticScore already public: no critic points · AudienceGrade already public: no audience points
Tier 2: Bill Irwin adapts and stars in Roundabout's Molière, with Rachel Bloom's Broadway debut; closes Nov 22, five months before nominations. · projected about $740K a week · 6 scoring weeks of grosses
Tier 3: MTC's revival of Jocelyn Bioh's comedy opened Sept 28 to strong reviews (82); Denée Benton and Patina Miller are the acting-nom hopes, but the run ends Nov 1 so almost no grosses are left. · CriticScore already public: no critic points · AudienceGrade already public: no audience points
Tier 1: Five-week return engagement at the Shubert that closed in June with mixed reviews (68); a pure awards long shot. · CriticScore already public: no critic points · AudienceGrade already public: no audience points
Tier 1: Holiday magic spectacle spun off the film franchise; the London run scored 72. Box office only, eight weeks through Jan 3. · projected about $455K a week · 7 scoring weeks of grosses
Tier 1: Holiday special at the Lunt-Fontanne; box office only, closes Jan 3. · projected about $319K a week · 7 scoring weeks of grosses
Off-Broadway
$5–8(24)No box office. Not Tony-eligible. Earn CriticScore, AudienceGrade, and Drama Desk, Outer Critics, Lortel and Obie awards.
Tier 5: Lynn Nottage and John Legend's new musical at The Shed with Adrienne Warren and Jessica Vosk, directed by Whitney White; the Off-Broadway musical to beat.
Tier 4: Daniel Fish (Oklahoma!) stages the 1993 Larry Kramer and Anthony Fauci confrontation at St. Ann's Warehouse with Will Brill and Thomas Jay Ryan.
Tier 4: The Olivier-winning London musical lands at the Public.
Tier 4: Tarell Alvin McCraney and Tina Landau's new play at the Vineyard with Wayne Brady.
Tier 4: August Wilson at Lincoln Center's Newhouse, directed by Ruben Santiago-Hudson with John Douglas Thompson and Russell Hornsby.
Tier 3: New play at LCT3's Claire Tow Theater.
Tier 3: O'Neill revival at Irish Rep.
Tier 3: New play at the Public's Martinson Hall.
Tier 3: Anne Washburn at MCC, directed by Anne Kauffman, with Jeremy Shamos.
Tier 3: Simon Stephens's monologue at Studio Seaview.
Tier 3: Lauren Yee's comedy at Signature with Kelly Marie Tran and Francis Jue.
Tier 3: New play at Atlantic Theater Company.
Tier 3: New musical at Roundabout directed by Christopher Ashley with Joaquina Kalukango.
Tier 3: Classic Stage revival directed by Steven Pasquale with Conrad Ricamora.
Tier 3: New play at the Public.
Tier 3: Nick Payne's American premiere at MTC with Lauren Ambrose and Tom Riley.
Tier 3: Revival at the Public's LuEsther Hall.
Tier 3: Bryna Turner world premiere at Second Stage with Celia Keenan-Bolger.
Tier 3: Tiago Rodrigues at BAM's Harvey Theater.
Tier 3: Christina Anderson's play at Playwrights Horizons with Crystal Lucas-Perry.
Tier 3: Commercial revival at Studio Seaview opening in December.
Tier 3: The Mad Ones' comedy returns at the Signature Center in February.
Tier 2: Commercial musical parody at the Orpheum.
Tier 2: Audible's Minetta Lane production.