Tony Awards Predictions
How our per-category model would have predicted the 2015 Tony Awards.
Prediction Report Card
3/4Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
Fun Home
Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Revival Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
The King and I
Revival Play
Missed (#3)
Our #1 pick
The Elephant Man
Actual winner
Skylight
Best Musical
CorrectNew musicals eligible for the top musical prize.
Best Play
CorrectNew plays eligible for the top play prize.
Best Revival of a Musical
CorrectMusical revivals competing for best revival honors.
Best Revival of a Play
Missed (#3)Play revivals competing for best revival honors.
Winner: Skylight · We picked The Elephant Man
Performer & Craft Categories
Historical 2014-2015 nominees with critic scores, audience grades, and Award Score.
Best Book of a Musical
Craig Lucas
Lisa Kron
Karey Kirkpatrick & John O'Farrell
Terrence McNally
Best Original Score
Jeanine Tesori & Lisa Kron
Wayne Kirkpatrick & Karey Kirkpatrick
Sting
John Kander & Fred Ebb
Best Actor in a Musical
Best Actress in a Musical
Best Actor in a Play
Best Actress in a Play
Best Direction of a Musical
Sam Gold
John Rando
Casey Nicholaw
Bartlett Sher
Best Direction of a Play
Moritz von Stuelpnagel
Stephen Daldry
Jeremy Herrin
Scott Ellis
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Best Choreography
Joshua Bergasse
Casey Nicholaw
Scott Graham & Steven Hoggett
Christopher Gattelli
Best Orchestrations
Christopher Austin & Don Sebesky & Bill Elliott
John Clancy
Larry Hochman
Rob Mathes
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Bob Crowley
David Zinn
David Rockwell
Michael Yeargan
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Bob Crowley
Bunny Christie & Finn Ross
Christopher Oram
David Rockwell
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Bob Crowley
William Ivey Long
Gregg Barnes
Catherine Zuber
Best Costume Design of a Play
David Zinn
Bob Crowley
Christopher Oram
Jane Greenwood
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Natasha Katz
Ben Stanton
Donald Holder
Japhy Weideman
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Japhy Weideman
Natasha Katz
Paule Constable
Paule Constable & David Plater
Rankings are derived from aggregated critic reviews. Tony eligibility based on opening dates within the 2014-2015 season. Category classifications (new vs. revival) are subject to official Tony Awards Administration Committee rulings.
Score model updated 2026-05-16. Awards Score now uses tier-weighted precursor nominations (Drama League, OCC, Drama Desk). Backtest accuracy: 41 of 47 contests (87%) across 12 years of Tony history.