Tony Awards Predictions
How our per-category model would have predicted the 2016 Tony Awards.
Prediction Report Card
4/4Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
Hamilton
Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
The Humans
Revival Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
The Color Purple
Revival Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
A View From the Bridge
Best Musical
CorrectNew musicals eligible for the top musical prize.
Best Play
CorrectNew plays eligible for the top play prize.
Best Revival of a Musical
CorrectMusical revivals competing for best revival honors.
Best Revival of a Play
CorrectPlay revivals competing for best revival honors.
Performer & Craft Categories
Historical 2015-2016 nominees with critic scores, audience grades, and Award Score.
Best Book of a Musical
Steve Martin
Julian Fellowes
Best Original Score
Andrew Lloyd Webber & Glenn Slater
Sara Bareilles
Best Actor in a Musical
Best Actress in a Musical
Best Actor in a Play
Best Actress in a Play
Best Direction of a Musical
Best Direction of a Play
Liesl Tommy
Rupert Goold
Jonathan Kent
Joe Mantello
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Best Choreography
Randy Skinner
Hofesh Shechter
Andy Blankenbuehler
Best Orchestrations
August Eriksmoen
Alex Lacamoire
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Es Devlin & Finn Ross
David Korins
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Jan Versweyveld
Christopher Oram
David Zinn
Beowulf Boritt
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Paul Tazewell
Gregg Barnes
Best Costume Design of a Play
Clint Ramos
Tom Scutt
Jane Greenwood
Michael Krass
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Justin Townsend
Howell Binkley
Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer
Ben Stanton
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Jan Versweyveld
Natasha Katz
Jan Versweyveld
Justin Townsend
Rankings are derived from aggregated critic reviews. Tony eligibility based on opening dates within the 2015-2016 season. Category classifications (new vs. revival) are subject to official Tony Awards Administration Committee rulings.
Score model updated 2026-05-16. Awards Score now uses tier-weighted precursor nominations (Drama League, OCC, Drama Desk). Backtest accuracy: 41 of 47 contests (87%) across 12 years of Tony history.