Tony Awards Predictions
How our per-category model would have predicted the 2017 Tony Awards.
Prediction Report Card
4/4Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
Dear Evan Hansen
Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
Oslo
Revival Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
Hello, Dolly!
Revival Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
Jitney
Best Musical
CorrectNew musicals eligible for the top musical prize.
Best Play
CorrectNew plays eligible for the top play prize.
Best Revival of a Musical
CorrectMusical revivals competing for best revival honors.
Best Revival of a Play
CorrectPlay revivals competing for best revival honors.
Performer & Craft Categories
Historical 2016-2017 nominees with critic scores, audience grades, and Award Score.
Best Book of a Musical
Danny Rubin
Dave Malloy
Best Original Score
Irene Sankoff & David Hein
Tim Minchin
Dave Malloy
Best Actor in a Musical
Best Actress in a Musical
Best Actor in a Play
Best Actress in a Play
Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Greif
Matthew Warchus
Jerry Zaks
Best Direction of a Play
Sam Gold
Bartlett Sher
Daniel Sullivan
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Best Choreography
Kelly Devine
Peter Darling & Ellen Kane
Denis Jones
Sam Pinkleton
Best Orchestrations
Bill Elliott & Greg Anthony Rassen
Alex Lacamoire
Larry Hochman
Dave Malloy
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Rob Howell
Santo Loquasto
David Korins
Best Scenic Design of a Play
David Gallo
Michael Yeargan
Douglas W. Schmidt
Nigel Hook
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Linda Cho
Santo Loquasto
Paloma Young
Catherine Zuber
Best Costume Design of a Play
David Zinn
Toni-Leslie James
Susan Hilferty
Jane Greenwood
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Howell Binkley
Japhy Weideman
Natasha Katz
Bradley King
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Jennifer Tipton
Christopher Akerlind
Jane Cox
Donald Holder
Rankings are derived from aggregated critic reviews. Tony eligibility based on opening dates within the 2016-2017 season. Category classifications (new vs. revival) are subject to official Tony Awards Administration Committee rulings.
Score model updated 2026-05-16. Awards Score now uses tier-weighted precursor nominations (Drama League, OCC, Drama Desk). Backtest accuracy: 41 of 47 contests (87%) across 12 years of Tony history.