Tony Awards Predictions
How our per-category model would have predicted the 2019 Tony Awards.
Prediction Report Card
3/4Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
Hadestown
Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
The Ferryman
Revival Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
Oklahoma!
Revival Play
Missed (#3)
Our #1 pick
The Waverly Gallery
Actual winner
The Boys in the Band
Best Musical
CorrectNew musicals eligible for the top musical prize.
Best Play
CorrectNew plays eligible for the top play prize.
Best Revival of a Musical
CorrectMusical revivals competing for best revival honors.
Best Revival of a Play
Missed (#3)Play revivals competing for best revival honors.
Winner: The Boys in the Band · We picked The Waverly Gallery
Performer & Craft Categories
Historical 2018-2019 nominees with critic scores, audience grades, and Award Score.
Best Book of a Musical
Dominique Morisseau
Scott Brown & Anthony King
Anaïs Mitchell
Bob Martin & Chad Beguelin
Best Original Score
Joe Iconis
Eddie Perfect
Matthew Sklar & Chad Beguelin
Adam Guettel
Best Actor in a Musical
Best Actress in a Musical
Best Actor in a Play
Best Actress in a Play
Best Direction of a Musical
Des McAnuff
Daniel Fish
Casey Nicholaw
Scott Ellis
Best Direction of a Play
George C. Wolfe
Rupert Goold
Ivo van Hove
Bartlett Sher
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Best Choreography
Sergio Trujillo
Camille A. Brown
David Neumann
Denis Jones
Best Orchestrations
Harold Wheeler
Michael Chorney & Todd Sickafoose
Larry Hochman
Daniel Kluger
Simon Hale
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Robert Brill & Peter Nigrini
David Korins
Rachel Hauck
Peter England
Laura Jellinek
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Santo Loquasto
Bunny Christie
Jan Versweyveld
Rob Howell
Miriam Buether
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Paul Tazewell
William Ivey Long
Michael Krass
Bob Mackie
William Ivey Long
Best Costume Design of a Play
Toni-Leslie James
Rob Howell
Ann Roth
Clint Ramos
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Howell Binkley
Kenneth Posner & Peter Nigrini
Bradley King
Peter Mumford
Kevin Adams
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer
Neil Austin
Jan Versweyveld & Tal Yarden
Peter Mumford
Jennifer Tipton
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Steve Canyon Kennedy
Peter Hylenski
Nevin Steinberg & Jessica Paz
Peter Hylenski
Drew Levy
Best Sound Design of a Play
Fitz Patton
Adam Cork
Eric Sleichim
Nick Powell
Scott Lehrer
Rankings are derived from aggregated critic reviews. Tony eligibility based on opening dates within the 2018-2019 season. Category classifications (new vs. revival) are subject to official Tony Awards Administration Committee rulings.
Score model updated 2026-05-16. Awards Score now uses tier-weighted precursor nominations (Drama League, OCC, Drama Desk). Backtest accuracy: 41 of 47 contests (87%) across 12 years of Tony history.