Tony Awards Predictions
How our per-category model would have predicted the 2020 Tony Awards.
Prediction Report Card
3/3Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
Moulin Rouge! The Musical
Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
The Inheritance
Revival Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
A Soldier's Play
Best Musical
CorrectNew musicals eligible for the top musical prize.
Best Play
CorrectNew plays eligible for the top play prize.
Best Revival of a Musical
Musical revivals competing for best revival honors.
Best Revival of a Play
CorrectPlay revivals competing for best revival honors.
Performer & Craft Categories
Historical 2019-2020 nominees with critic scores, audience grades, and Award Score.
Best Book of a Musical
Diablo Cody
John Logan
Katori Hall & Frank Ketelaar & Kees Prins
Best Original Score
Christopher Nightingale
Paul Englishby
Jason Michael Webb & Fitz Patton
Daniel Kluger
Best Actor in a Musical
Best Actress in a Musical
Best Actor in a Play
Best Actress in a Play
Best Direction of a Musical
Diane Paulus
Phyllida Lloyd
Best Direction of a Play
Kenny Leon
Jamie Lloyd
David Cromer
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Best Choreography
Sidi Larbi Cherkaoui
Anthony Van Laast
Best Orchestrations
Tom Kitt
Justin Levine & Katie Kresek & Charlie Rosen & Matt Stine
Ethan Popp
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Riccardo Hernández & Lucy Mackinnon
Derek McLane
Mark Thompson & Jeff Sugg
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Rob Howell
Derek McLane
Soutra Gilmour
Bob Crowley
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Emily Rebholz
Catherine Zuber
Mark Thompson
Best Costume Design of a Play
Rob Howell
Dede Ayite
Bob Crowley
Clint Ramos
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Justin Townsend
Justin Townsend
Bruno Poet
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Hugh Vanstone
Allen Lee Hughes
Jon Clark
Heather Gilbert
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Jonathan Deans
Peter Hylenski
Nevin Steinberg
Best Sound Design of a Play
Simon Baker
Daniel Kluger
Paul Arditti & Christopher Reid
Daniel Kluger
Rankings are derived from aggregated critic reviews. Tony eligibility based on opening dates within the 2019-2020 season. Category classifications (new vs. revival) are subject to official Tony Awards Administration Committee rulings.
Score model updated 2026-05-16. Awards Score now uses tier-weighted precursor nominations (Drama League, OCC, Drama Desk). Backtest accuracy: 41 of 47 contests (87%) across 12 years of Tony history.