Tony Awards Predictions
How our per-category model would have predicted the 2023 Tony Awards.
Prediction Report Card
4/4Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
Kimberly Akimbo
Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
Leopoldstadt
Revival Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
Parade
Revival Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
Topdog / Underdog
Best Musical
CorrectNew musicals eligible for the top musical prize.
Best Play
CorrectNew plays eligible for the top play prize.
Best Revival of a Musical
CorrectMusical revivals competing for best revival honors.
Best Revival of a Play
CorrectPlay revivals competing for best revival honors.
Performer & Craft Categories
Historical 2022-2023 nominees with critic scores, audience grades, and Award Score.
Best Book of a Musical
David West Read
David Thompson & Sharon Washington
Best Original Score
Jeanine Tesori & David Lindsay-Abaire
Best Actor in a Musical
Best Actress in a Musical
Best Actor in a Play
Best Direction of a Musical
Jack O'Brien
Casey Nicholaw
Best Direction of a Play
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Best Choreography
Jennifer Weber
Steven Hoggett
Best Orchestrations
Bill Sherman & Dominic Fallacaro
John Clancy
Sam Davis & Daryl Waters
Jason Howland
Charlie Rosen & Bryan Carter
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Michael Yeargan
Beowulf Boritt
Scott Pask
Scott Pask
Mimi Lien
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Richard Hudson
Tim Hatley & Andrzej Goulding
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Paloma Young
Jennifer Moeller
Donna Zakowska
Susan Hilferty
Gregg Barnes
Best Costume Design of a Play
Brigitte Reiffenstuel
Tim Hatley & Nick Barnes & Finn Caldwell
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Howard Hudson
Lap Chi Chu
Ken Billington
Heather Gilbert
Natasha Katz
Natasha Katz
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Neil Austin
Tim Lutkin
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Gareth Owen
Scott Lehrer & Alex Neumann
Kai Harada
John Shivers
Nevin Steinberg
Best Sound Design of a Play
Ben & Max Ringham
Carolyn Downing
Ben & Max Ringham
Rankings are derived from aggregated critic reviews. Tony eligibility based on opening dates within the 2022-2023 season. Category classifications (new vs. revival) are subject to official Tony Awards Administration Committee rulings.
Score model updated 2026-05-16. Awards Score now uses tier-weighted precursor nominations (Drama League, OCC, Drama Desk). Backtest accuracy: 41 of 47 contests (87%) across 12 years of Tony history.