Tony Awards Predictions
How our per-category model would have predicted the 2024 Tony Awards.
Prediction Report Card
4/4Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
The Outsiders
Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
Stereophonic
Revival Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
Merrily We Roll Along
Revival Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
Appropriate
Best Musical
CorrectNew musicals eligible for the top musical prize.
Best Play
CorrectNew plays eligible for the top play prize.
Ruled ineligible by the Tony Administration Committee
- Just for Us — Solo storytelling — Special Tony Award recipient at the 77th ceremony, not eligible for competitive Best Play.
Best Revival of a Musical
CorrectMusical revivals competing for best revival honors.
Best Revival of a Play
CorrectPlay revivals competing for best revival honors.
Performer & Craft Categories
Historical 2023-2024 nominees with critic scores, audience grades, and Award Score.
Best Book of a Musical
Kristoffer Diaz
Bekah Brunstetter
Adam Rapp & Justin Levine
Rick Elice
Best Original Score
Adam Guettel
Will Butler
Justin Levine
Best Actor in a Musical
Best Actress in a Musical
Best Actor in a Play
Best Actress in a Play
Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Greif
Leigh Silverman
Danya Taymor
Best Direction of a Play
Lila Neugebauer
Whitney White
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Best Choreography
Camille A. Brown
Rick Kuperman & Jeff Kuperman
Jesse Robb & Shana Carroll
Best Orchestrations
Tom Kitt & Adam Blackstone
Timo Andres
Jonathan Tunick
Will Butler & Justin Craig
Justin Levine & Matt Hinkley
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Tim Hatley & Finn Ross
Tom Scutt
Robert Brill & Peter Nigrini
Tatiana Kahvegian
Takeshi Kata
Best Scenic Design of a Play
dots
David Zinn
David Zinn
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Tom Scutt
Dede Ayite
Paul Tazewell
Linda Cho
David Israel Reynoso
Best Costume Design of a Play
David Zinn
Dede Ayite
Dede Ayite
Enver Chakartash
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Isabella Byrd
Natasha Katz
Brandon Stirling Baker
Brian MacDevitt & Hana S. Kim
Bradley King & David Bengali
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Isabella Byrd
Jane Cox
Jiyoun Chang
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Nick Lidster
Gareth Owen
Kai Harada
Cody Spencer
Best Sound Design of a Play
Bray Poor & Will Pickens
Justin Ellington & Stefania Bulbarella
Ryan Rumery
Rankings are derived from aggregated critic reviews. Tony eligibility based on opening dates within the 2023-2024 season. Category classifications (new vs. revival) are subject to official Tony Awards Administration Committee rulings.
Score model updated 2026-05-16. Awards Score now uses tier-weighted precursor nominations (Drama League, OCC, Drama Desk). Backtest accuracy: 41 of 47 contests (87%) across 12 years of Tony history.