Question 1

Which shows won Tony Awards in the 2020-2021 season?

Accepted Answer

The 2020-2021 Tony season data includes all eligible shows ranked by our per-category prediction model.

Question 2

How are Tony predictions calculated on Broadway Scorecard?

Accepted Answer

Each Tony category uses its own blend recipe tuned across 12 Tony seasons. Best Musical: 45% critic + 45% audience + 10% cast acting Tony nominations count (a same-ballot voter-sentiment signal that activates after Tony nominations are announced). Best Play: 100% precursor awards combining Drama League/OCC/Drama Desk top-category signal with Pulitzer, NYDCC, and Tony nomination breadth. Best Revival of a Musical: 95% audience + 5% broad precursor signal, with weights fit by log-loss on the displayed softmax. Best Revival of a Play: 20% critic + 60% audience + 20% Awards Score. Best Musical and Best Revival of a Musical also penalize shows without a Best Direction of a Musical Tony nomination (no winner has lacked one in 11 seasons) and jukebox musicals (no wins outside the COVID-truncated 2019-20 ceremony). Across 12 seasons the model picks the eventual winner 44 of 47 times (93.6%).

Question 3

What is the Awards Score?

Accepted Answer

A 0-100 score derived from a show’s nominations at the three precursor industry awards — Drama League (weighted 1.0), Outer Critics Circle (0.9), and Drama Desk (0.7). The matching top category (Outstanding Musical / Play / Revival) earns +30 × tier weight for a win or +10 × tier weight for a nomination. Other nominations are then weighted by the importance of the category — Book / Music / Lyrics / Score (A+ tier, weight 2.0), Direction / Lead Acting / Choreography (A tier, 1.5), Featured Acting / Orchestrations (B tier, 1.0), Design (C tier, 0.5). The weighted-nominations total is normalized by an eligible-pool ceiling so plays and musicals are comparable. Awards Score only contributes to the Best Play prediction; for other categories it’s shown for transparency but not weighted.

Question 4

How often are Tony predictions updated?

Accepted Answer

Predictions update automatically as new reviews are published and audience scores change. During awards season (April through June), rankings can shift daily as last-minute reviews come in.

Season	Mus.Musical	PlayPlay	R. Mus.Revival Musical	R. PlayRevival Play
2025-2026	✓	✓	✓	✓
2024-2025	✓	✓	✓	✓
2023-2024	✓	✓	✓	✓
2022-2023	✓	✓	✓	✓
2021-2022	✓	✓	✓	✓
2019-2020	✓	✓	—	✓
2018-2019	✓	✓	✓	✗
2017-2018	✓	✓	✓	✓
2016-2017	✓	✓	✓	✓
2015-2016	✓	✓	✓	✓
2014-2015	✓	✓	✓	✗
2013-2014	✓	✓	✓	✗

Tony Awards Predictions

Season by season

Where we missed (3)

Best Musical

Mrs. Doubtfire

Flying Over Sunset

Diana, The Musical

Best Play

Lackawanna Blues

POTUS: Or, Behind Every Great Dumbass are Seven Women Trying to Keep Him Alive

Best Revival of a Musical

Funny Girl

West Side Story

Best Revival of a Play

Plaza Suite