Tony Awards Predictions
How our per-category model would have predicted the 2026 Tony Awards.
Who Called the 2026 Tonys?
final pre-ceremony picks vs. the winnersHow every public predictor did: our model, the prediction markets, Gold Derby's three panels, the press, and the Beat the Critics panel.
Kalshi prices captured 7:29 PM ET June 7, minutes before the ceremony. Gold Derby odds as locked at ceremony start. Press picks published by June 6.
Best Musical
CorrectNew musicals eligible for the top musical prize.
Best Play
CorrectNew plays eligible for the top play prize.
Best Revival of a Musical
CorrectMusical revivals competing for best revival honors.
Best Revival of a Play
CorrectPlay revivals competing for best revival honors.
Performer & Craft Categories
Historical 2025-2026 nominees with critic scores, audience grades, and Award Score.
Best Book of a Musical
Jim Barne & Kit Buchan
Marla Mindelle & Constantine Rousouli & Tye Blue
David Hornsby & Chris Hoch
Best Original Score
Cinco Paul
the Rescues
Caroline Shaw
Steve Bargonetti
Best Actor in a Musical
Best Actress in a Musical
Best Actor in a Play
Best Actress in a Play
Best Direction of a Musical
Zhailon Levingston & Bill Rauch
Michael Arden
Christopher Gattelli
Tim Jackson
Best Direction of a Play
Whitney White
Robert Icke
Nicholas Hytner
Kenny Leon
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Best Choreography
Ellenore Scott
Lauren Yalango-Grant & Christopher Cree Grant
Ani Taj
Best Orchestrations
Doug Besterman & Mike Morris
Andrew Lloyd Webber & David Wilson & Trevor Holder & Doug Schadt
Ethan Popp & Adrianne "AG" Gonzalez & Gabriel Mann & Kyler England
Lux Pyramid
Brian Usifer
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Dane Laffrey
Scott Pask
Rachel Hauck
Soutra Gilmour
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Hildegard Bechtler
Chloe Lamford
David Korins
David Rockwell
Takeshi Kata
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Qween Jean
Linda Cho
Linda Cho
Ryan Park
David I. Reynoso
Best Costume Design of a Play
Jeff Mahshie
Qween Jean
Paul Tazewell
Emilio Sosa
Brenda Abbandandolo
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Jen Schriever & Michael Arden
Adam Honoré
Adam Honoré & Donald Holder
Donald Holder
Jane Cox
Kevin Adams
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Jack Knowles
Natasha Chivers
Heather Gilbert
Isabella Byrd
Heather Gilbert
Stacey Derosier
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Kai Harada
Adam Fisher
Kai Harada
Walter Trarbach
Brian Ronan
Best Sound Design of a Play
Tom Gibbons
Mikaal Sulaiman
Justin Ellington
Josh Schmidt
Lee Kinney
Rankings are derived from aggregated critic reviews. Tony eligibility based on opening dates within the 2025-2026 season. Category classifications (new vs. revival) are subject to official Tony Awards Administration Committee rulings.
Score model updated 2026-05-16. Awards Score now uses tier-weighted precursor nominations (Drama League, OCC, Drama Desk). Backtest accuracy: 41 of 47 contests (87%) across 12 years of Tony history.