Tony Awards Predictions
How our per-category model would have predicted the 2022 Tony Awards.
Prediction Report Card
4/4Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
A Strange Loop
Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
The Lehman Trilogy
Revival Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
Company
Revival Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
Take Me Out
Best Musical
CorrectNew musicals eligible for the top musical prize.
Best Play
CorrectNew plays eligible for the top play prize.
Best Revival of a Musical
CorrectMusical revivals competing for best revival honors.
Best Revival of a Play
CorrectPlay revivals competing for best revival honors.
Performer & Craft Categories
Historical 2021-2022 nominees with critic scores, audience grades, and Award Score.
Best Book of a Musical
Conor McPherson
Lynn Nottage
Christina Anderson & Craig Lucas & Larry Kirwan
Best Original Score
Jason Robert Brown & Amanda Green
Jason Howland & Nathan Tysen & Masi Asare
Best Actor in a Musical
Best Actress in a Musical
Best Actor in a Play
Best Actress in a Play
Best Direction of a Musical
Conor McPherson
Christopher Wheeldon
Lucy Moss & Jamie Armitage
Best Direction of a Play
Neil Pepe
Les Waters
Lileana Blain-Cruz
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Best Choreography
Carrie-Anne Ingrouille
Warren Carlyle
Best Orchestrations
Charlie Rosen
David Cullen
Simon Hale
David Holcenberg & Jason Michael Webb
Tom Curran
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Arnulfo Maldonado
Bunny Christie
Derek McLane & Peter Nigrini
Allen Moyer
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Scott Pask
Michael Carnahan & Nicholas Hussong
Es Devlin
Adam Rigg
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Fly Davis
Paul Tazewell
Toni-Leslie James
Gabriella Slade
Santo Loquasto
Best Costume Design of a Play
Jennifer Moeller
Montana Levi Blanco
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Jen Schriever
Neil Austin
Natasha Katz
Donald Holder
Tim Deiling
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Jane Cox
Jon Clark
Yi Zhao
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Drew Levy
Ian Dickinson
Simon Baker
Gareth Owen
Paul Gatehouse
Best Sound Design of a Play
Mikhail Fiksel
Mikaal Sulaiman
Nick Powell & Dominic Bilkey
Palmer Hefferan
Rankings are derived from aggregated critic reviews. Tony eligibility based on opening dates within the 2021-2022 season. Category classifications (new vs. revival) are subject to official Tony Awards Administration Committee rulings.
Score model updated 2026-05-16. Awards Score now uses tier-weighted precursor nominations (Drama League, OCC, Drama Desk). Backtest accuracy: 41 of 47 contests (87%) across 12 years of Tony history.