Tony Awards Predictions
How our per-category model would have predicted the 2025 Tony Awards.
Prediction Report Card
4/4Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
Maybe Happy Ending
Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
Purpose
Revival Musical
Correct
Our #1 pick
Sunset Boulevard
Revival Play
Correct
Our #1 pick
Eureka Day
Best Musical
CorrectNew musicals eligible for the top musical prize.
Best Play
CorrectNew plays eligible for the top play prize.
Best Revival of a Musical
CorrectMusical revivals competing for best revival honors.
Best Revival of a Play
CorrectPlay revivals competing for best revival honors.
Performer & Craft Categories
Historical 2024-2025 nominees with critic scores, audience grades, and Award Score.
Best Book of a Musical
Marco Ramirez
Marco Pennette
David Cumming & Felix Hagan & Natasha Hodgson & Zoë Roberts
Best Original Score
Julia Mattison & Noel Carey
David Cumming & Felix Hagan & Natasha Hodgson & Zoë Roberts
Best Actor in a Musical
Best Actress in a Musical
Best Actor in a Play
Best Actress in a Play
Best Direction of a Musical
Saheem Ali
David Cromer
Christopher Gattelli
Jamie Lloyd
Best Direction of a Play
Kip Williams
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Best Featured Actress in a Play
Best Choreography
Patricia Delgado & Justin Peck
Christopher Gattelli
Camille A. Brown
Best Orchestrations
Marco Paguia
Bruce Coughlin
Andrew Resnick & Michael Thurber
Will Aronson
David Cullen & Andrew Lloyd Webber
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Arnulfo Maldonado
Derek McLane
Derek McLane
Dane Laffrey & George Reeve
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Miriam Buether
Marg Horwell & David Bergman
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregg Barnes
Dede Ayite
Paul Tazewell
Catherine Zuber
Clint Ramos
Best Costume Design of a Play
Holly Pierson
Brigitte Reiffenstuel
Marg Horwell
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Tyler Micoleau
Justin Townsend
Scott Zielinski & Ruey Horng Sun
Ben Stanton
Jack Knowles
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Jon Clark
Nick Schlieper
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Jonathan Deans
Dan Moses Schreier
Peter Hylenski
Peter Hylenski
Adam Fisher
Best Sound Design of a Play
Paul Arditti
Clemence Williams
Rankings are derived from aggregated critic reviews. Tony eligibility based on opening dates within the 2024-2025 season. Category classifications (new vs. revival) are subject to official Tony Awards Administration Committee rulings.
Score model updated 2026-05-16. Awards Score now uses tier-weighted precursor nominations (Drama League, OCC, Drama Desk). Backtest accuracy: 41 of 47 contests (87%) across 12 years of Tony history.